Market

The past ten days, I’ve spent a fair amount of time scoping out retailers large and small in the Twin Cities metro area, looking for patterns. From Mall of America to Main Street, there were plenty to see…one in particular was quite telling.

Last weekend, I noticed a lot of corporate stores stocking significantly less Christmas inventory than usual. It was equally clear that they saw the writing on the wall too late to cut back extensive Halloween offerings…but not too late to do so for for the December holidays. Given how many of those brands also sell through independent retailers, I set out to see what kind of shelf space they were getting at the grass roots level.

Sadly, what I found was both shocking and expected, based on observations at a number of markets the past six months.

See, one of my biggest concerns this summer was the hard sell many reps and vendors were pitching to buyers at each of the five markets I attended. From May through August, countless retailers were quietly pulling me aside to ask “Am I the only store having a rotten year?” as reps insisted orders were up and inventory was a necessity. Buyers were being hammered with “Other retailers are ordering big”…“Everyone else is moving lots of product”…“The worst of the economic slow down is behind us,” making them doubt themselves at the worst possible time.

At one point in Atlanta, I actually pleaded with a showroom vendor to stop telling retailers All is fabulous! since we were both aware of how many stores were already struggling.

Little did buyers know that while lines were hitting them hard for big orders, those same companies were simultaneously reducing their own 4Q commitments. Although locally Department 56 provides the most disparity between what their corporate store stocks versus what independents are saddled with, they are by no means the sole example. Time and time again, I found independent retailers hip deep in product that was next to non-existent in the same vendors’ corporate stores.

Herein lies the catch. To survive a lousy economy, an enormous amount of trust is required between buyer and supplier. It’s kind of like two people on opposite ends of a teeter totter. Working together, they take turns bobbing up and down in balance, but the moment one steps off to pursue their own agenda without mentioning it to the other, their counterpart lands on the ground pretty hard.

When you see a vendor say one thing, then do the opposite, the teeter totter analogy suddenly becomes quite real.

No one knows a store’s needs or limitations better than its owner. Vendors and reps who respected their independent retailers this summer (rather than opt for the hard sell) will be the ones buyers return to come January. They’ve successfully balanced their short term needs against a store’s long term goal. No one gets dropped in the dirt; the teeter totter continues to function.

Those who pushed large orders on teetering buyers this summer, however, will have to face them again in January, fresh off what will arguably be the most challenging holiday season in history. God help ‘em if their insistence on oversized orders didn’t pan out as lucrative holiday numbers…a roomful of retailers with still-stinging, slam-to-the-ground backsides might be a bit less than jovial to contend with.

And a lot less likely to order from the line ever again.

Yes, this year stinks for a lot of retailers. And yes, that means it stinks for a lot of vendors and reps too. But folks, we‘ve got to “honest up” and look out for each other on the retail teeter totter…or we’re all gonna end up in the dirt. Fast.

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