The Numbers Game

Prepare yourself. I’m about to climb on my soapbox.

We all know the economy’s tight. And we all know that a tight economy will have a negative impact on the gift industry. And we all know one of those negative impacts is lower attendance at the gift shows.

No shock there.

What is shocking, however, is the rampant rumor mill surrounding attendance at the Atlanta gift show last week. Granted, I’m partial to Atlanta as one of its Advisory Board members, but that doesn’t make me stupid. I’ve got it a bit more together than that.

Here’s where I climb up on my box, so buckle in.

A person (who shall remain nameless) told me Atlanta’s attendance was down 30%. I assured him that number was wildly (read: incomprehensibly, extraordinarily, over-the-moon-ily) inflated…which it was. Having attended last Monday’s meeting, I know the actual number, and folks, it ain’t even remotely close to this sky-high 30% stuff; attendance was significantly better than that.

As in double-digits-significantly.

What gets my goat, is that the same rumor found its way to Chicago in a mere six days, where it had grown to a whopping 30-40% drop. The person who told me (who shall also remain nameless) is someone of the highest moral character…the kind of guy who simply isn’t into rumors.

Needless to say, I nearly came out of my shoes.

Yes, marts and shows are competitive, and yes, many “fudge” on the numbers to gain a (perceived) advantage. But-—and this is a big but-—Atlanta is using hard data. They count the number of buyer badges printed on-site; they aren’t using eyeball estimates of how many people are in the hall or strolling through a showroom. They’re counting actual breathing, physically present bodies. Besides-—they’re audited on this stuff.

Face it-—with most buyers opting for shorter market trips these days, showrooms aren’t going to look like they did when everyone stormed the hallways all at once. Buyers are coming in shifts, which lessens bottlenecking, just like highway on-ramp meters do. No mystery there.

Also, they’re getting pickier about whose product to take a chance on this holiday season. If it’s a sure hit, they’re in. If it’s the least bit iffy, well…as Heidi Klum would say “Yow out.”

Folks, we have a choice to make. Either we get real about what’s going on in our industry, then adapt -or- we allow rumors to perpetuate a gloomier reality that we already have.

Of course, the latter will only make things worse, which is just plain ridiculous.

Some showrooms saw 30% drops in their traffic and their orders. Some showrooms saw 30% increases in their traffic and their orders. My bet is product and attitude have a lot more to do with which end of the numbers game someone’s on than attendance, regardless of where they’re showing.

So…whadaya say we all put our pointy sticks down and stop trying to poke holes in one another? Maybe, just maybe, we can float back to the top en masse when this thing passes.

There. End of rant. Thanks for listening.